If you had just woken up after a six-month digital detox, peeking at YTD returns in global markets might lull you into thinking 2025 has been a relatively uneventful year. But beneath the surface, the story is far more dynamic — driven less by earnings or innovation and more by shifting tides in currency markets…
Geopolitical shocks, especially military conflicts, present a particularly difficult challenge for investors—not because markets fail to price them in, but because they price them in too fast. While humans tend to focus on present chaos and fear, markets are already processing tomorrow’s possibilities. This divergence often leads to emotional, flawed investment decisions precisely when cool-headed…
As the June 2025 FOMC meeting approaches, the U.S. Federal Reserve finds itself at a critical inflection point—not just economically, but institutionally. With just eight scheduled meetings left in Jerome Powell’s term as Chair, markets are not only watching policy signals but also reading between the lines of a legacy in formation. The Fed’s updated…
May 2025 marks a pivotal moment in global equity performance: for the first time in over 15 years, rest of world (ROW) stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 by the widest margin on record over a 100-day trailing period. This development raises critical questions for global asset allocators: Is this a statistical anomaly destined to mean revert, or the…
On Friday, Moody’s Ratings became the final member of the “Big Three” to strip the United States of its pristine Aaa credit rating, downgrading it to Aa1. This decision, while symbolically significant, raises the question: Does it actually matter for markets, rates, or recession risks? Let’s dissect this event across three analytical dimensions: A. Moody’s…
As of early May 2025, the gold/silver ratio stands at an extraordinary 102x, a level rarely seen outside of historic crises. This ratio—simply the price of gold divided by the price of silver—serves as a real-time barometer of market sentiment. Right now, it’s flashing a powerful signal: investors are prioritizing safety and value preservation over industrial…
The April 2025 U.S. jobs report delivered a measured dose of optimism for markets and policymakers alike, painting a picture of a labor market that’s neither too hot nor too cold — just right enough to keep the Fed steady-handed, at least for now. 1. Labor Market Holding Firm: Job Gains Beat Expectations U.S. employers…
April 2025 Capital Markets Performance Review April was a volatile and revealing month for global capital markets, with currency fluctuations, sector rotation, and policy uncertainty shaping returns across equities, commodities, and FX. 1. Currency-Driven Equity Gains Strategic Implication: The weaker USD is lifting non-US equities for dollar-based investors. We maintain our recommendation for a 30%…
Year-to-date, non-U.S. equities have staged a notable outperformance relative to U.S. markets, with the iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF (ACWX) returning +9.0% versus a -6.0% decline in the S&P 500. This relative strength reflects recent macro divergences, including differing monetary policy stances, currency dynamics, and sectoral exposures more favorable to non-U.S. markets. However, this…
Recent volatility in the US dollar, particularly its decline in recent weeks, warrants closer inspection through a long-term historical lens. Using year-over-year changes in the Nominal Trade-Weighted Dollar Index (2007–Present) as a benchmark, we draw three analytical insights: 1. Dollar Strength Is a Crisis SignalHistorically, pronounced dollar appreciation has coincided with episodes of acute macroeconomic stress. The…
