April 2025 Capital Markets Performance Review April was a volatile and revealing month for global capital markets, with currency fluctuations, sector rotation, and policy uncertainty shaping returns across equities, commodities, and FX. 1. Currency-Driven Equity Gains Strategic Implication: The weaker USD is lifting non-US equities for dollar-based investors. We maintain our recommendation for a 30%…

Year-to-date, non-U.S. equities have staged a notable outperformance relative to U.S. markets, with the iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF (ACWX) returning +9.0% versus a -6.0% decline in the S&P 500. This relative strength reflects recent macro divergences, including differing monetary policy stances, currency dynamics, and sectoral exposures more favorable to non-U.S. markets. However, this…

Recent volatility in the US dollar, particularly its decline in recent weeks, warrants closer inspection through a long-term historical lens. Using year-over-year changes in the Nominal Trade-Weighted Dollar Index (2007–Present) as a benchmark, we draw three analytical insights: 1. Dollar Strength Is a Crisis SignalHistorically, pronounced dollar appreciation has coincided with episodes of acute macroeconomic stress. The…

As the U.S. dollar plunges at a historic pace, the world watches with rising alarm—not just at the numbers, but at what they reveal: a growing mistrust in U.S. economic policymaking and a rising specter of political interference at the heart of global monetary policy. Donald Trump’s renewed verbal assault on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome…

In the circus of global financial systems, few duels have been as compelling—or confounding—as the one between President Donald Trump and Market. The former, a man of shifting policy and flair for chaos, has made an indelible mark on the rhythm of global markets. The latter, a fictional character first crafted by Benjamin Graham and…